March Madness Betting Tips

March Madness Betting Tips

Now the brigade of recreational sports bettors line up at the window and provide, and sometimes take away, line value from us “Sharps” as March Madness is in full swing. It is apparent to me that one has to sidestep a few landmines along the way, as LESS is MORE when it comes to betting March Madness, both in the NCAA and NIT tourneys that are underway on Tuesday Night. The is plenty of parity, especially in the NIT tourney this year in college basketball. I can say without question, or many arguments that there are 5 or 6 teams in the NIT that could be round 1 winners in the big dance, and a few possible sweet 16 teams in there as well. Always look at road records and home records in NIT game match-ups, since they are played on teams courts and do not go to a neutral site until the semi-final games in New York. The home team always has an advantage, and one might catch a short line or two that has value.

High seeds in the NIT sometimes have a let down spot, since they were rejects from the NCAA tourney committee. Cincinnati comes to mind in that category, as well as SW Missouri State (RPI of 21) and Creighton. These teams for example, have first round byes and will be laying a decent number at home in their first NIT game, and depending on the line, it may be worth looking at the underdog in those scenario’s. Maryland is just happy to be here, and they are a regional #1 seed, and Louisville, which also should provide a stiff test in their first game, so those big boys might be WORTH a look!

NCAA tourney trends are everywhere, I would not buy into all of them, look at the right here, right now. Who came limping in the tourney, and who came in hot and on a roll, I look to Kansas for example, 15-1 their last 16 and they won the Big 12 Tourney over Texas, who pounded them by 25 earlier this year? That is the question that makes the money. How about shooting percentage in away games on the year? I cannot stress enough free throw percentage, many games outcomes depend on it.

I have heard so much about #5 seeds versus #12 seeds. In the last 5 years #12 seeds are 10-9-1 ATS, hardly a money maker even against the number, but are always competitive. The BEST ATS scenario in round 1 has been #7 seeds versus # 10 seeds in the past 5 years at 13-7 ATS. California vs. NC State is in this scenario this season, Marquette vs. Alabama as well, and I could see both those #7 seeds making the hay in round 1. And last, but not least, #15 seeds have covered 65{4b1fe63123713d31487550d3441c07e511f9c896d21719779d3ce493da6269bd} ATS overall the past 5 years, and always a huge underdog. This fact lies within the coach of a #2 seeded team resting players after the game is decided early on, and backdoor covers are apparent in the right scenario. Check the two highest point getters and do your homework and find the best value in that scenario.

All in all, it should be a great tourney season, and there will be a Cinderella team or two both in the NCAA and NIT tourneys, and there will be a monster upset or two in round 1. Pick and choose your teams wisely, use sound money management and do not get caught up in all the hype or what Billy Packer or Digger Phelps says, and do your homework and look for real value and tangible items to handicap in March Madness, because that is what the pro’s do, I assure you.